Peter Dutton’s Coalition is set for electoral wipe-out and is on track to secure just 47 seats compared to 84 for Labor, according to YouGov’s last poll.
In what would be the worst election result in Liberal Party history, YouGov predicts there is a 97% likelihood of a Labour majority government, and that the ALP will secure a whopping 18 seat majority.
Yet both the ALP (31.4%) and Coalition (31.1%) are projected to record lower primary votes than the last election, with voters abandoning the major parties.
You Gov predicts One Nation will win no seats, the Greens will secure three seats — and Independents will win 14 seats.
Independents are predicted to secure 8.1% of the vote share — up a massive 65% on the 2022 federal election.
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Support for the Liberal and National parties has plunged, including in key outer suburban and regional seats, with Labor “poised to win with an increased majority,” according to YouGov director of public data Paul Smith.
“This is a dramatic campaign turnaround considering our data in February pointed to a likely Coalition government,” Smith said.
“YouGov’s (modelling) shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections.
“It was in these types of electorates where the Coalition was leading just a couple of months ago,” he said.
Image Source: YouGov Image top: Liberal leader Peter Dutton. Source: ABC News/Tamara Penniket
The pollster predicts Independents will take four seats from the Coalition — Bradfield, in North Sydney; Cowper, on the NSW mid-north coast; Wannon in southwest Victoria; and Calare in regional NSW.
It is predicting Independent Nicolette Boele will take Bradfield with 64.5% of the two-party preferred vote, defeating the Coalition’s 35.5%.
“Independent Alex Dyson is set to oust Liberal MP Dan Tehan with a massive 61.9% of the two-party preferred vote”
Independent Alex Dyson is tipped to convincingly take Wannon — ousting the Liberal MP Dan Tehan, with a massive 61.9% of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 38.1%.
Source: YouGov
On the NSW mid-north coast, Independent Caz Heise is set to take Cowper, ousting Nationals MP Pat Conaghan, with 63.5% over the Coalition, 36.5%.
“YouGov’s central projection – the most likely result – shows Labor on 84 seats, the Coalition on 47, Independents on 14, Greens on 3, KAP on 1 and the Centre Alliance 1,” the group said.
“This would see Coalition experiencing a net loss of 11 seats from its 2022 result.
Source: YouGov
In the seat of Calare, west of the Blue Mountains in regional NSW, is tipped to be won by current Independent MP Andrew Gee.
Gee won the seat for the National Party at the March 2022 election but resigned from the party later that year to sit as an Independent, over the party’s opposition for the Indigenous Voice to parliament.
Source: YouGov
YouGov predicts prominent Liberal MP David Coleman, the shadow minister for foreign affairs, and Michael Sukkar, the shadow cabinet minister for housing and social affairs, will both lose their seats to Labor.
It tips Coleman will be replaced in Banks, in Sydney’s south-western suburbs, by Labor candidate Zhi Soon; and Sukkar will be defeated in Deakin, in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, by Labor’s Matt Gregg.
“However, the Coalition is projected to regain seat from Labor the seat of Aston won in a mid-term by-election in 2023,” YouGov states.
“While Labor is favoured to win Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens, the results will be determined by the preferences of voters of the third-placed party in what are three-way contests between Labor, Greens and the Coalition.”
“Both the Labor Party (31.4%) and the Coalition (31.1%) are projected to get lower primary votes than at the last election,” YouGov says.
“The decline in the largest party’s vote shares have come as the number of voters supporting minor parties and independents has increased compared to 2022.”
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